Lauren Boebert's re-election in jeopardy, new poll shows

  • John Frank, author of Axios Denver

By the numbers: Boebert received support from 47% of likely voters, while Democrat Adam Frisch landed at 45% — making the race a statistical tie within the ±4.4 percentage point margin of error.

  • 7% of voters are undecided, per the poll.

The survey, taken Sept. 29–Oct. 2 by Keating Research, a Democratic firm and one of the most accurate pollsters in Colorado, represents a 5-point swing toward Frisch. In July, Boebert held a 49%-42% advantage.

  • Unaffiliated voters — those not aligned with a major political party — strongly dislike Boebert, who's known for her Christian nationalist rhetoric, opposition to bipartisan legislation, and lighting rod remarks about guns and immigration. Those voters are shifting toward Frisch as the election progresses, pollsters said.

What they're saying: "With Boebert under 50%, that means she is vulnerable to losing this race," Chris Keating, president and founder of Keating Research, told Axios Denver on Tuesday. Yes, but: The 3rd District on Colorado's Western Slope overwhelmingly favors Republicans, and the race is not considered competitive by national experts.

  • Boebert is a fundraising juggernaut and frequent surrogate supporter for Republican candidates across the country.

  • FiveThirtyEight gives Boebert a 98% chance of winning a second term.

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